| | | Good morning! | | Is the US in recession? Or is it not? This is actually a far more important question, even for India, than who said what to whom in Parliament. Indeed, even a cursory exercise will show that the past week, had many such paired questions of the consequential and the inconsequential — just like the many weeks that preceded it (29, to be exact) did, and the many that follow (22), likely will. Let’s indulge ourselves with one more. Was there a mini Cold War playing out on stage at the inaugural of the Chess Olympiad, between Prime Minister Narendra Modi (whose speech was replete with emphasized references to India) and Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin (whose speech, as well as much of the opening ceremony, emphasized Tamil culture and Tamil civilization)? That, for those who need help, was at the inconsequential end of the spectrum. Its pair would be: how worried should we be about monkeypox? And should India be scrambling for diagnostic kits and vaccines? We could go on; the 30th week of 2022 was not short of issues of consequence — from student suicides in Tamil Nadu (worrying, even if the number is just a matter of coincidence) to a cash-for-jobs scandal involving a starlet and a minister in West Bengal; and from the latest economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund to the safety issues at SpiceJet that has put the airline under the airline regulator’s “enhanced surveillance”. Please note that I am not even getting into the most inconsequential story of the week. Then, an exclusive focus on the consequential would take all the fun out of life — it’s the reason Fast and Furious 9 is among the most streamed movies in India currently (What? It isn’t?). And it’s the reason I include reading (including pulp and comics sometimes) and music recommendations in this newsletter. Many think-tank types, who are obviously smarter than I am — and, by extension, do not have to read the more substantive bits of my newsletter because they know it all already — tell me that it’s the (only) part they look forward to every week. | | THINK So, is the US economy in recession, or not? It did shrink for the second consecutive quarter, and by one definition, that clearly indicates it is in recession. The US Federal Reserve may not want to call it one, though — and it perhaps believes it is entitled to not call it a recession, simply because the slowdown is of its own making, a cure for runaway inflation. But as Greg Ip writes in The Wall Street Journal, “recession or not, the recovery has ended”. A recession in the country’s largest trading partner is not good news for India, especially since it is battling its own economic challenges, including inflation, inequitable growth, and a falling rupee. Exports were a bright spot last year, but it is unlikely they will do as well as last year at a time when the US in in recession and the rest of the world is also slowing. IMF has already pruned by 40 basis points in its July update, its estimate for global growth in 2022. The number is now 3.2%, down from 6.1% last year. It has revised downward by 80 basis points, its estimate for India growth (7.4%). | | | | THINK MORE One reason for last year’s high global growth was because economies around the world were recovering from the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic (in terms of mortality and cases, 2021 was worse than 2020, but saw fewer economic disruptions, and many countries, including India, also launched large vaccine drives early in the year). The world now faces another health threat in the form of monkeypox, which is threatening to become an endemic in the US. There have only been a few cases in India, but there will likely be more. India has already called for expressions of interest from companies interested in making diagnostic kits and vaccines (the viral genome has already been sequenced). Monkey pox is not as infective as Covid, nor is it as fatal. Non-symptomatic cases are rare, but the disease can only be confirmed once lesions start appearing (and the test can only be performed in a laboratory). It spreads through close (and intimate) contact, respiratory droplets, and filthy sheets and surfaces. Masks and wipes will continue to serve us well. | | KNOW A lot of the political action this week has revolved around actions of the Enforcement Directorate, which typically files cases under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act. On Monday, the government said in Parliament that thus far only 23 people have been convicted in 5,422 cases filed under PMLA. The ratio of convictions looks marginally better when only cases where charge sheets have been filed are considered, 992. Still, at 2.3%, it is far from impressive. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court upheld the powers of ED, although it provided some relief to those charged by the agency by ruling that if the original police or Central Bureau of Investigation complaint on the basis of which ED launched its investigation has been quashed, the agency cannot proceed with the case. | | LEARN The Commonwealth Games at Birmingham began this week, and India is not just without the best athlete it has ever produced (Neeraj Chopra; on account of injury), but also handicapped by this edition of the games not featuring the sport that accounts for a third of India’s gold medals at all Commonwealth Games, shooting. That may well threaten India’s 20-year record of featuring in the top five countries by medals at the games. Still, India does have its share of gold-hopefuls, in a range of disciplines, from wrestling and boxing to badminton and weightlifting. It can also expect to do well in hockey and cricket (only women’s cricket is included in this edition). | | READ MORE All about Poha The men behind Gujarat’s fake IPL league The ecological debate set off by Manipur’s landslide Why paddy planting is lagging this season | | OUTSIDE Earlier this month, two papers published in American Mineralogist came up with a revolutionary way of classifying minerals — based on how they form (in the process, looking at how life plays a role in their formation). The latest issue of Nautilus magazine has an article based on those papers. Among the findings “is evidence that about half of all mineral diversity is the direct or indirect result of living things and their byproducts,” it says. | | WHAT I'M READING Reality +: Virtual Worlds and the Problems of Philosophy, by David Chalmers, a deeply provocative (and sometimes philosophical take) on virtual worlds. Virtual reality is just as real as reality itself, he argues. And because virtual words are often so much better than non-virtual ones, he adds, “life in virtual worlds will often be the right life to choose.” Chalmers is the co-director of the Center for Mind, Brain and Consciousness at NYU, and got interested in Reality after writing a paper, “The Matrix as Metaphysics”, in the wake of the success of the first Matrix movie. | | WHAT I’M LISTENING TO Since the beginning of the year, bluegrass-jam band The Infamous Stringdusters has played around 30 concerts and I have listened to each. They have played some interesting covers (a lot of the Jerry Garcia Band, but also others, including The Police and Pink Floyd), but also a lot of their own music. The quintet — guitar, dobro, banjo, double bass, and fiddle — hasn’t got as much attention as they deserve (although they have a Grammy for best bluegrass album). Their new album, Toward The Fray, may have a depressing cover, but it’s good bluegrass. | Please share your feedback with us What do you think about this newsletter? | | Were you forwarded this email? Did you stumble upon it online? Sign up here. | | | | | | Get the Hindustan Times app and read premium stories | | | | | | View in Browser | Privacy Policy | Contact us You received this email because you signed up for HT Newsletters or because it is included in your subscription. Copyright © HT Digital Streams. All Rights Reserved | | | | |
