While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. If this post was forwarded to you and you liked it, consider subscribing. It’s free. If you enjoy what’s written here, you will also like our book, Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy. #278 Old Ideas, New BeginningsDirect Benefit Transfers for Women, The Glue that Keeps Democracies Going, A Last Chance to Revive Urban Governance, and Dealing with Our Hardware Insecurities
India Policy Watch #1: “Dear” SistersInsights on current policy issues in India— RSJMaharashtra goes to poll this Wednesday. Pollsters, chastened by the Lok Sabha and Haryana election outcomes, haven’t done many opinion polls. The two primary political configurations, the BJP-led Mahayuti and the Congress-led MVA have spent considerable time figuring out the complex seat arrangements among themselves, leaving limited time for real campaigning. The number of large political families involved in Maharashtra politics has meant different members of the same family have spread themselves out across the political spectrum based on the ideology of convenience. How they will regroup once the elections are over is anyone’s guess. The usual poll time rhetoric on communal lines has caught on as the central BJP leaders joined the campaign. The sense of betrayal that the Shiv Sena (UT) and Sharad Pawar camps capitalised on during Lok Sabha elections seems to have ebbed too. Speaking to a cross-section of voters in the past couple of weeks in and around Mumbai and following the local media, I got a sense the ruling BJP coalition had their nose ahead. The one reason most quoted to highlight the good work of the ruling coalition was the Majhi Ladki Bahini Yojana (which we wrote about here) that was started only in July after the Lok Sabha losses. The scheme now covers 2.34 crore women (or “sisters” as the government communication calls them) who are receiving Rs. 1500 every month in their Aadhar-linked bank accounts. In fact, the initial response to the scheme was so good that it appears to be the primary reason for delaying the Maharashtra elections instead of doing it together with Haryana as had happened in the past. Since then the ruling coalition has milked the scheme and its benefits through a communication blitz that’s quite visible in the election season. The opposition MVA has promised to increase the monthly allocation to Rs 2100 in a clear acknowledgement that the scheme has widespread public support. If this works for Mahayuti at polls this week, expect more states to launch copycat schemes with higher money allocations. Voters love “free” money, and politicians like nothing better than being seen as modern royalty, opening up the state’s treasury for their subjects. Given my view that this could soon be a nationwide phenomenon, I thought it would be useful to look at the data about such schemes that are already on for the past three years and the conclusions one could draw from them. Here’s what I have gathered:
A couple of years ago, PM Modi bemoaned the “revdi“ (freebies) culture for votes and (rightly) blamed Congress for creating it. The wheel seems to have turned a full circle. The longer you stay in power, the more you resemble the party you replaced. Thanks for reading Anticipating the Unintended! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work. Global Policy Watch: Toleration and ForbearanceInsights on global issues relevant to India— RSJI went back to some of the books that came out after Trump’s first win back in 2017. One of the books published then was How Democracies Die, whose Wikipedia entry reads:
Trump went about picking up his colleagues last week in what is being described as a YOLO cabinet of loyalists, hardliners and metaphorical bomb-throwers. Trump is being more deliberate and disciplined this time in ensuring he is not beholden to norms and conventions unlike in 2017. Then, a mix of 5-star generals, Republican old guard and state department officials kept a lid on his instincts to follow his pet themes on trade, immigration and the economy or to go after his opponents in politics, media or business. This time, it seems quite different. We are in the DOGE zone now after all. Anyway, I thought I would leave you with a couple of insightful passages from the book on how unwritten democratic norms are critical in keeping a democracy healthy, which seems to be timely as the US comes to terms with Trump 2.0:
India Policy Watch #2: Hum Nahin Sudharenge*Insights on current policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneIn edition #276, I asked the question: What is the smallest possible set of political choices that can explain China’s economic trajectory? I proposed three, one of which was bureaucratic decentralisation. A staggering 51 per cent of government spending in China happens at sub-provincial levels, and municipal funds of prominent cities invest in leading electric vehicle companies and semiconductor manufacturers. In sharp contrast, you only need to feel the AQI levels in Delhi or experience the crumbling roads of Bengaluru. The state of urban governance in India can flatten the optimism of the most fervent patriot. RBI’s annual report on municipal finances published earlier this week makes the problems more obvious (not that we need another reminder). Nevertheless, here are the important points:
These numbers are symptomatic of the poor livability in Indian cities. None of these issues are new. State governments continue to complain about unfair treatment by the union government even as they gleefully strangle city governments. Union governments, on the other hand, haven’t been able to think beyond grant-making for city development. Thus, it is a welcome change that the union government is finally planning a model Municipal Act under the aegis of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs. Here’s what a report from ThePrint says:
A ground-up review of municipal government structures is perhaps the most significant leverage point for India’s economic trajectory, so this effort is on the right track. But all that the Union government can do is produce a “model” Act, as city-level governance changes are ultimately the constitutional domain of the states. It is equally important for the Union government to align the cognitive maps of state governments on this issue. For there will be no Viksit Bharat without functional, livable, and well-governed cities. India Policy Watch #3: Hardware InsecurityInsights on current policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneFor good reason, all electronic hardware and software coming out of China is being seen with a security-first lens. From chips to cranes, every product coming out of China is being seen as a potential loophole that the CCP can use against an adversary. Citing these concerns, the solution is obvious: do not buy chips, networked equipment, or complex machinery from China. However, we also know that this solution is rhetorical. While building domestic capabilities is justifiable, the reality is that doing this will take a few years. Even if we assume that all such domestic efforts will eventually succeed, what are we going to do until then? This question is particularly significant for India, given its low advanced manufacturing base. From Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) to driverless metro trains and from low-end chips to server equipment, India relies on imports from China. In most cases, these products are made by foreign companies with a manufacturing setup in China. Sometimes, no real alternatives exist because even the alternatives eventually come from China. What, then, are some practical ways to mitigate the threat of espionage and sabotage? In my view, there are two underrated solutions. First is hardware supply chain security. The Indian government has already initiated measures to assess the integrity, quality, and authenticity of hardware components and products throughout their lifecycle - from design and manufacturing to distribution and installation. By including guidelines for trust sourcing, hardware audits, component traceability, and compliance with industry standards, we can reasonably mitigate security risks. The second is to invest in technical research to tackle hardware vulnerabilities. The idea here is to bake security into the chip and system design stages. DARPA, for instance, has been running several programmes for hardware security since 2017. One such programme, System Security Integration Through Hardware and Firmware (SSITH), has produced proof-of-concept implementations. In some of these programmes, the US is collaborating with the UK. It is here that the Indian government can pitch in by prioritising research in hardware security and collaborating with partner countries. A ban on all hardware coming from China seems to be an industrial-age solution to an information-age problem. We can do better. P.S.: I think many people are under the impression that India buys some super-specific chips from China that the latter can hack into. Indian firms mostly buy commoditised low-end chips from China, most of which are designed and manufactured elsewhere but merely assembled in China. Reasonable hardware supply chain security measures should be enough to mitigate the risks in such cases. These chips are neither strategically significant nor specifically vulnerable. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters
* A 1980 movie title featuring Asrani, rated an unenviable 5.4/10 on IMDb If you liked this post from Anticipating The Unintended, please spread the word. :). If public policy interests you, consider taking up Takshashila’s public policy courses, specially designed for working professionals. Our top 5 editions thus far:
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